There's a whole lot of shakin goini on ....

I was in a few earthquakes during my sojourn in the Philippines. Most were around 6 on the Richter scale. But one in Cabanatuan was 7.8. ( and that folks is a biggy!)

The photo to the left is the aftermath of the San Francisco earthquake of 1906. Magnitudes between 7.7 and 8.25 have been suggested for that disaster.

Which brings me to the point of this here posting today - the Richter Scale.

The news media have been doing a good job covering the Christchurch earthquake, but one thing they fail to explain is the Richter scale. I have a feeling many people including those in the press don't understand it.

For example some people think a magnitude 6 is twice as big as a magnitude 3.  Not so.

In fact a magnitude 6 is 1000 times bigger than a magnitude 3!!

Why? I hear some ask. Surely not! Others cry.


The Richter scale is related to the base ten logarithmic scale ( ooops  ... some eyes are beginning to glaze over!).

The gap between each whole number (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ....) represents a 10 fold increase in the amplitude of the earth quake.

This simple graph shows what I mean. As does the table below.

However, it is not quite as simple as that (darn ... it never is in mathematics ... the people cry).

But in terms of the energy of the earthquake, each whole jump represent around 31 times the energy.

The recent Christchurch earthquake was scaled down from a 7.4 to a 7.1. Not much many may think. But in actual fact a 7.4 magnitude is 2.5 times the magnitude in terms of amplitude of a 7.1.

The Cabanatuan earthquake of 7.8 was 5 times the amplitude of Christchurch's 7.1. Fortunately, I was some 400 km from the epicentre. But even 400 km away we were shakin!

A final thought. The Christchurch earthquake represents just over 40 megatons of TNT in terms of energy released.

That is more than the energy of the largest thermonuclear weapon ever tested.

Some would argue we should ditch the richter scale and speak of earthquakes in terms of their TNT equivalent. They suggest this would be more meaningful. Thus Christchurch's earthquake would have been 40 megatons and San Francisco would have been at least 800 megaton.

What do you all think?


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Your cheatin heart will tell on you ....

I received an email with a link to a site: Why students cheat. US$99 seemed a bit steep for a 22 page book.

Anyhoo, I have often thought that exams are kind of like educational bulimia.

In the days and hours leading up to the exam, the students cram like crazy.

In the exam room they throw up, vomit and spew all their memorised "knowledge".

After the exam, they quickly forget the lot.

Seems to me that in the 21st century, we need much better ways of assessing learning than that.

I think there is still a case for exams in certain subjects, but I try as much as I can to avoid them as assessment tools.

One tool I use is blogs. Among other things, they give the student writers a lot bigger audience (than just their teachers) to read what they write.

....luck be a lady tonight ...

If I had my way (if I were  was king of the world), statistics would be compulsory for all students at senior secondary school.

Absolutely compulsory.

This short 3 min video argues the case more eloquently than I me.

Much As I love calculus, probability and statistics is the way to.

A woman,  Sally Clark, suffered the loss of two sons in a short space of time (just over 1 year) to cot death. It was considered such an unlikely event in the space of such a sort time, that she was presumed guilty of their murder.

In court, a pediatrician (as an expert witness) told the jury that the likelihood of such an event was 1 in 73 million.

He reasoned thus:

Likely-hood of one cot death = 1 in 8500


So likely-hood of two deaths = (1in 8500) x (1 in 8500) = 1in about  72 million

For more details click here

Maybe a great pediatrician, but a fat-lot-of-use statistician. The women was sent to jail.

She later got released on appeal.

The dunce doctor, among other things, had assumed independent events!  aaaah!!

The jurors, lawyers and judge were ignorant of the most basic concept in statistics.

Thank you for being a friend ....

A dear friend of mine died the other day.

Richard Denny (on the right in the photo) and my father (left) were workmates and good friends. (Ohh and that's my mum in the middle).

Their friendship was cemented in a strange and painful way.

My father operated one of those huge cranes you see rising out of buildings on a city skyline. One day he was lowering a huge slab of concrete into place.

Richard was helping to guide the slab into position.

Dad was unable to see the concrete slab and relied on the instructions given by various workmates. Sadly there was some misunderstanding.

The concrete slab crushed a number of Richard’s fingers – fingers which he subsequently lost.

The result was a firm friendship between the two men.

Years later, Richard and I became friends. And I found him to be a true gentleman.

He and his wife Yvonne’s home was constantly open to the young people of the church I attended. We spent countless hours there laughing, praying, and eating up a storm.

Richard was a humble servant – always cheerful – who simply did whatever needed to be done.

The list of his endeavours on behalf of others is way too long for this little blog.

Hey, but the nicest thing about this man was his great friendship. For me, that was without a doubt the most important thing about him.

Farewell …..

Oh old friends swapping lies of life and loves ...

Well, the 2^nd to last Thursday in August has come around again! And as you all know St Quincy’s Day is once again upon us.

I find St Quincy’s Day  one of the most important celebrations of the calendar years. The only one to really match it is of course St Percival’s day held every September 13.

Now, as you know screeds have been written on the subject and origins of St Quincy’s day and its long associations with long-term male friendship and leek and potato soup.

Suffice it to say, St Quincy’s Day offers yet again the chance to celebrate long-term friendship around plates of steaming hot Cream of Leek and Potato Soup.

Now to make leek and potato soup, you need to first of all take a long leek.

The standard that Archibald Fructus Quincy laid down for “long term friendship” was 30 years or more.

So if you haven't had a friend for at least 30 years, forget your leek and potato soup!

The song old friends (Link)

“Old friends pitching pennies in the park

Playing croquet till its dark old friends mmm old friends

Oh old friends swapping lies of life and loves

Pitching popcorn to the doves old friends …mmm old friends

Old friends looking up to watch the birds

Holdin’ arms to climb a curb old friends… mmm old friends

Old friends Lord when all my work is done

Bless my life and grant me one old friend at least one old friend.”

Written by Roger Miller.

... suicide is painless, It brings on many changes, And I can take or leave it if I please.

It is of course the theme from M*A*S*H.

But it brings me to my most sombre of blog postings.

Bare with me  oops bear with me ... I lost a twin bother to suicide.

The Ministry of Health's policy is that the reporting of suicide is dangerous and I quote:

"Frequent or repetitive reporting of suicide may encourage the public perception that suicide is a reasonable, understandable and common approach to solving life difficulties."

The chief coroner disagrees: and I quote the herald:

"Yesterday, Judge MacLean said he wanted to encourage more openness, public debate and media coverage of the suicide rate - there are on average 10 suicides every week in New Zealand - because this might reduce the number. But he recognised the debate would start with more-detailed reporting of individual suicide cases" (NZ Herald, August 12, 2010).

There were 540 suicides in NZ last year. Way above the road toll.

May I say I think the Ministry's approach is lamentable and medieval. It is totally without foundation in research.

Basically the Ministry are saying "sweep it under the carpet" "out of sight our of mind" and I reply "BOSH!"

Frankly speaking, the ministry's approach is nothing short of damnable.

It is time for a campaign like that of the John Kirwan campaign on depression.

Some psychiatrists agree with the ministry - no wonder our mental health services are in disarray.

The factors around suicide are many and extremely complex.

But no doubt, the key ingredient is that the person is finding that life has become unbearable.

They are experiencing a level of emotional or perhaps physical pain that has become intolerable.

And this is precisely what needs to be addressed.

But it won't be addressed if the Ministry continues down its  misguided path.

Let's start talking about suicide.

As the Queen said:

"Don't try suicide
Nobody's worth it
Don't try suicide
Nobody cares
Don't try suicide
You're just gonna hate it
Don't try suicide
Nobody gives a dam"

Baby when the lights go out, I'll show you what it's all about

It is finally a sunny day in Aucklun, Nu Zulun with an almost clear blue sky.

The sun is shining and it made me think of one of the most serious threats we face making so-called anthropogenic global warming fade by comparison.

You may of may not be aware of a recent increase in solar flares. These coincide with an increasing number of sunspots.

Well, there is also such a thing as a solar storm - the mother, if you will of all solar flares. With these storms there are Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). These things hurtle through space to wards the earth at millions of miles per hour.

Back in 1859 there was such a storm which paralysed telegraph machines.

The CME took 18 hours to reach the earth.

Such a storm today could have a disastrous effect on all our electric systems and repairs would take months if not year. Transformers blown to kingdom come.

In the words of the immortal Frazer form Dad's Army : We're doooomed I tell you, .... we're all dooomed!"

The sun works on an eleven year cycle of solar minimums and solar maximums. The next solar maximum is 2012.

It is sobering to think on just how dependent we are on electricity and just how little we are prepared to survive without it compared to our ancestors.

Will the lights go out in 2012 and not come back for months?

And soon I'll hear old winter's song...

I am not a great fan of winter ... having lived over six years in the tropics.

I don't get it as bad as those who suffer from SAD (seasonal affective disorder).

Apparently Johnny Briggs (alias Mike Baldwin of Coronation street) gets it so bad he has to flee the English winters for warmer climes - namely Florida.

Now there's many a cold winter's morning I wake up and wish I was also in Florida folks! Sadly I lack the mula that Johnny possesses in abundance.

Winter tests my running addiction to the extreme! there are days when the the rain is teeming down and the winds are a howling and I feel strangely, weirdly, disinclined to go for a run.

 It is then I have an identity crisis! Perhaps I am not a running addict after all.

In which case this whole blog is just one great sham! It is all a lie folks! A disgraceful pretense!

Don't get so emotional!

But the plus side ...... after tolerating, suffering, enduring, and surviving another bleak winter, ...... summer is all the sweeter.

Perhaps I am just a summer running addict?

Gonna take a sentimental journey, gonna put my mind at ease

35 years ago my two friends and I took a journey to the far north. Recently we made a sentimental journey back there to remember those halcyon days.

Back then (1975) two of us were  25 and the other 18. How old are we now? Go figure.

Once again we took the pilgrimage to Cape Reinga by bus.

35 years ago the three of us were suffering from food poisoning. On the journey back from the cape, I was the first to request the driver to stop and then hurl myself off the bus to vomit, chunder, baff  and throw up in the grass. One by one my friends did the same.

Back at the Motel, things were coming out both ends for all of us! Too much information

 But that was 35 years ago - we were young and vunerable boys.

This time it was a far more pleasant experience made all the more delightful by our superb bus driver, Barry - a maori from the far north.

Blue Moon You saw me standing alone Without a dream in my heart

Now what with the winter's wet blustery grip   .... and peoples favourite teams bowing out of the world cup   ... it is not surprising that some of you are feeling just a tad depressed, despondent and may just a little despairing.

But there's hope!

As you can see by the little picture to the left ... there is someone eminently qualified to give you that  spot of encouragement you are crying out for.


So whether it is a paper cut or a life crisis (like burnt toast).

He can assist. When they let him out of  ....